April 2026 - The Bill Comes Due

The confirmation window did not close. Q1 2026 earnings arrived in late April and produced data SGGI did not predict. Capex went up across all five hyperscalers. The first hard test of the thesis pushed the probability down without moving the timeline. The question is no longer whether the cycle is ending. The question is whether 2027 growth comes in slower than 2026 and that answer is still six months away.

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Thesis